Gray Areas

Week 10. Coming off their bye, the Patriots went into Indianapolis as 3 point underdogs. Which, is kind of understandable considering the Colts were the #1 ranked offense in the league. 

The Patriots were far from flawless, especially in the first half, but it was a pretty convincing win in my opinion. 

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium

When: Sunday November 17th, 2014 

Key Matchups: Revis on Reggie Wayne ; Arrington on T.Y. Hilton ; Fleener -well we couldn't seem to cover him at all, so just Fleener vs the Pats defense ; O-Line vs the blitz-happy Colts defense 

Blatantly Bad: 

1. Brady's two interceptions. Especially the second one, late in the first half. What the was that? Brady seemed to have checked out of a run play, and opted for a sideline pass, instead. Totally pointless, and completely avoidable. Why pass it on 3rd and 1? Should've handed the ball off to Gray or let Brady sneak it over...after all, he is the best in the league at quarterback sneaks. As for his first pick, I didn't agree with the play at all, mainly because why go deep to Tyms in triple coverage? Brady had a very un Brady-like first half. 
2. We had absolutely no answer for Fleener all night long. I guess maybe the Patriots had forgotten about him, while they were busy preparing for Wayne and Hilton. Who knows. 
3. Still need to address and fix the penalty issue. New England has had way too many drive-killing penalties, this season. 

Glaringly good:

1. Versatility on offense. Jonas Gray had a crazy good game. And that doesn't even do it justice. Jonas Gray dominated tonight - 199 yards and 4 touchdowns. He bulldozed through tackles and consistently moved the chains all. night. long. Gronk was his usual self, hauling in a touchdown pass, and getting physical with former Patriot, Sergio Brown. If Brown is going to remember anything from this game, it's probably to never talk trash around Gronk...like, ever again. Tim Wright was back to catching touchdown passes, and Jules was clutch, per usual. Pretty much sums it up.
2. Offensive line! In my opinion, OLine was the most impressive unit on Sunday night. They did such a great job not only protecting Brady, but blocking for Jonas Gray as well. 
3. Defense--in general. Pats secondary was pretty solid for the most part, and stepped up when they needed to most. Aside from allowing a few catches, Revis managed to contain all-time great, Reggie Wayne. Browner struggled to slow down Coby Fleener, but given the type of corner Browner is, that really comes as no surprise to me. All in all, they got the job done. The Patriots defensive line has really improved over the past couple weeks. Ninko and Wilfork both had dominating performances against Indy, limiting Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson to 4 yards. Yes, 4. As for the linebacker position, both Hightower and Collins played a pretty solid game. They both struggled slightly when dropping into seam coverage, which allowed the Colts to run deep crossing routes, fairly successfully. 

Quick Thoughts: Pats @ Colts

It's 1am as I'm writing this but I couldn't just not post before tomorrow, err tonight's, game.

The last time the Patriots played on Sunday Night this season, they were playing for much more than just a win. After falling to 2-2 and second place in their division, most everyone seemed to have written the Patriots off. Even more, they had written Tom Brady off. The dynasty was over and and in the words of Trent Dilfer, "they're a weak team" and "the Patriots are not good anymore".  The Patriots entered the week 5 primetime game coming off an absolute blowout in Kansas City, to face the then undefeated Bengals. The only analyst/"expert" to pick the Patriots to win was my favorite, Adam Schefter. And well, we all know how that played out. Tom Brady got pissed, and boom, touchdowns and greatness, and most of all a WIN. I don't want to jinx anything so I'll leave it there. 

This week, the Patriots travel to Indianapolis to take on Andrew Luck and the high-powered Colts. At 6-3 and first in their division, the Colts are actually playing pretty well. I always like to look at the strength of teams' divisions and who they've played though, so take this with a grain of salt. The Pats are currently the underdogs in this game, which is understandable because the Colts have been on fire lately, and they play in a dome, which is always an advantage for the home team. Lucas Oil Stadium is not unfamiliar territory for the Pats. So they know what to expect...noisy, loud, and full of energy. 

Luck-y
Andrew Luck is 0-2 vs the Patriots in his career. With Andrew Luck under center, the Colts have lost to New England by a combined 56 points. And that was without the secondary we have now. 

Keys for an Indy Win:

• Run the ball. If the Colts want to win, they would benefit greatly from establishing a                                 run game early on. 
• Get to Brady. Something I'm hoping doesn't happen. But, if the Colts have learned anything from watching tape this week, surely they've noticed that putting pressure on Brady is the best way to slow down New England's offense. 
• Good luck covering Gronk. I mean really, how do you effectively cover the 6 foot 7 tight end? If you put two defenders on him, that leaves another Patriots receiver open, if you don't, well that just seems kind of unfair to the lone guy who's left with the challenge. But hey, I'm not complaining. 
• Limit turnovers. Especially Andrew Luck. Considering he has more interceptions that touchdowns in his two games vs the Patriots, he probably already feels the insane amount of pressure. 

Keys for a New England victory:

• Mix up the gameplan. Keep the defense guessing. Don't overrun or over pass the ball. Finding a perfect balance between the two early on will help set the tone for the rest of the game. 
• Disrupt the pass. Though I expect a lot of zone, I'm hoping Bill lets Revis and Browner get physical. This matchup will be no cakewalk for our secondary. In fact, it is arguably their toughest challenge yet. Revis on Hilton is going to be interesting. Hopefully though, Revis is able to shut him down like he has other top receivers. Browner will have his hands full trying to lock up Reggie Wayne, one of the best in the game (and ever). 
• Pressure Andrew Luck. Force him to rush plays and move around in the pocket. But keep in mind that he can and will tuck the ball and run when necessary.  So limit his options in the air and on the ground. 
• Create turnovers. I think this one pretty much speaks for itself. 
• QUIT THROWING PICKS, TOM. 3rd and 1 and we pass it? Ridiculous. Best QB sneak in the game and we pass? Come on. 

This week is fulllll of good match-ups, so I will literally being doing nothing but watching football allllll Sunday long. 

I tweet a lot on gamedays, so for quick thoughts, lots of sarcasm, quotes from Gramps, and a little comedy, make sure you're following me on twitter! @Lauren736 <--- best way to keep up with me in between posts, too. 

As always, Go Pats. 

Mid-season thoughts, analysis, & predictions: AFC

I usually wait until Thanksgiving to make my division winners and Super Bowl predictions, but we're midway through the season and there have been a lot of shocking teams, both good and bad.

Let's break it down division-by-division.

AFC North - this might be the most interesting division, in my opinion. Who would've thought that the Browns would be tied for first place? Not me, that's for sure. It's still too early for me to declare who I think takes the AFC North, but Pittsburgh looks pretty tough to beat right now.
Steelers: after a shaky start to the season, the Steelers have really found themselves the past 2 weeks. Big Ben (as much as I dislike him) has been playing some wicked good football. 6 touchdowns in the past 2 games, and 0 interceptions. As much as I hate to admit it, he's playing better than ever.
Browns: Johnny Football, who? No disrespect but why fix what isn't broken? Brian Hoyer continues to prove that he can in fact be a starter in the NFL. Love how he continues to give credit to his days in New England for his success. Once Josh Gordon comes back, watch out. If they continue to improve, they just might make the playoffs.
Bengals: going into week 5, the Bengals were the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL. Then, they got their butts handed to them by the Pats (!!) and it's kind of all been downhill since. Andy Dalton is already assuming his playoff form, and it's just November (if you're unclear on the joke: Andy Dalton has never won a playoff game in his career). Biggest issue? Inconsistency.
Ravens: in what world do the Ravens take last place in their division? They're record isn't bad by any means, but still. Maybe it's karma for all the off-season/Ray Rice drama. Who knows.

AFC South - aside from the Colts, there's not too much to talk about here.
Colts: Andrew Luck has been on fire lately. His NFL skill-set is something else. Definitely one that reminds you of the greats. Combine that with talents like TY Hilton and Reggie Wayne and you have something pretty darn special. Luck still throws too many careless interceptions, but aside from that, he's good! A few question marks still surround the Colts defense, though, Especially their secondary.
Texans: You have JJ Watt one of the best defensive players in the game, right now. You have Bill O'Brien, an offensive genius. So what's not working? Well it'd be easier to tell you what is working, haha. The quarterback position is definitely one of their most blatant issues. I don't know that either Ryan, Mallett or Fitzpatrick, is the answer for them.
Titans: Oh Titans. I so wanted you guys to have a good season. The constant revolving door at the QB position is one the biggest problems here, as well. Granted, the Titans really had planned on Jake Locker being the starter this year, but the kid can't stay healthy. Which is a bummer because I've always thought he had good potential. The defense is another issue. It's like they could be a pretty good unit, but they're just missing that key piece. 
Jags: they finally got a win!! Can you believe that the Jags actually have the same number of playoff wins as the Bengals? Yeah, me neither. There's so many problems with this team that I have no idea where to start. Coaching is one. Defense is another. They finally answered the quarterback question and even drafted some guys for him to throw to (this is a step in the right direction)! But there's the thing...did you catch it? "Drafted." Meaning they're rookies. Meaning they're adjusting. Give them a couple years and I honestly see Jacksonville being playoff contenders.

AFC East - I'm honestly just too superstitious to write much about this division right now.
Pats:*knocks on wood the entire time I'm writing this* The past month, the Pats have played near perfect football. They've been on a mission since the week 4 embarrassment in Kansas City to prove everyone wrong. And that they have. Hopefully they continue to improve a little bit each week.
Bills: The Bills kind of shocked everybody when they were atop of the AFC East for a couple weeks. They're stout defensive line and shockingly stellar offense (at times) had them looking like they could be legitimate playoff contenders. Now, due to key injuries, many people have dialed back the "Bills are winning the AFC East this season", talk.
Dolphins: inconsistency is their biggest issue. One week they're impressive and the next they're impressively bad. Ryan Tannehill isn't the same quarterback week in and week out, and you never know which Tannehill is going to show up. I'm also not sold on Joe Philbin as a head coach, especially in Miami; but that's another post. They have the talent, it's just getting the talents to work together as a unit. 
Jets: Oy. I'm trying to write this post with the most unbiased opinions, but it's hard. The Jets are honestly just a train wreck. And though you don't hear this often from me, I do feel bad for Rex Ryan. He is a better coach than their record shows. In my personal-strictly football-opinion, I don't think Geno Smith is an NFL starting quarterback. And definitely not for the Jets. I think that ship has sailed, far far away. Do I believe that Jets have a legit starting QB on their roster? No. Also, the Jets signed Eric Decker during free agency to give Geno someone to throw to. Which is great and all, but I have one problem with that: Eric Decker was never meant to be a number 1 receiver. He does best as the 2 or 3 receiver. At 1-7, it's amazing how hard these guys still play.

AFC West - I did think this was going to be a competitive division, until San Diego crushed my dreams.
Broncos: While many people had Denver pinned as the best team in the league up until very recently, I always disagreed. Sure, Peyton and the Broncos won some good games and played some really good football, but who were their opponents? Were they at home or on the road? This second half of the season is where it really matters. Can Manning continue to put up the numbers and stats and make (enough) plays in December when it's below freezing temperatures and snowing?
Chiefs: Up and down has pretty much been the story for Kansas City this season. After starting 0-2, Kansas City now finds themselves at 5-3, and second in their division. During the first 8 games, they've played one of the toughest schedules and lost 5 of their starters to injuries. They have played pretty well on defense, despite releasing one of the best corners in the game, Brandon Flowers, in the offseason. KC's offense is one of the biggest question marks, in my opinion. I think that finding a balance is key. Don't over pass and neglect the run game, but don't overrun the ball, either. No matter the outcome of their season, I still think Andy Reid is one of the best coaches in the NFL. He's done a great job in Kansas City over the past 2 seasons. 
Chargers: Okay, so I can't even lie, I honestly thought that San Diego had a chance to win the AFC West this season. Phillip Rivers played phenomenal football during the first 6 games. I even had Rivers as a potential MVP front-runner. So what happened? The Chargers defense has also been pretty banged up for the majority of this season. Even Brandon Flowers, who's in his first season with San Diego, isn't 100%. When healthy, San Diego could have a top 10, highly underrated, defense. Unfortunately, I no longer see the Chargers taking the AFC West from Denver. Maybe next season.
Raiders: There's not much to say about the winless Raiders, really. Disappointing season all around for Oakland fans. Derek Carr has NFL potential, but the Raiders have so many things they need to fix before they'll fully be able to showcase his talent. If you hadn't been following the NFL for the past decade, would you believe that the Raiders actually used to be good? That they used to have a top 10 defense..? Things sure have changed for the black and silver. 

Division winners at this point (final predictions coming Thanksgiving week): 
North - Steelers                                                                   South - Colts    
East - too superstitious to type my pick...hint, hint.     West - Broncos

*This post was written before the week 10 games were played, so keep that in mind. Because clearly, the Steelers did not look tough beat on Sunday vs the Jets. 

Scary Good

Tomorrow, the Broncos come to Foxboro to duke it out for sole possession of the AFC. As of now, the Broncos sit atop of the AFC at 6-1, with the 6-2 Patriots not far behind in second place. Tomorrow also marks the 16th meeting between Brady and Manning...one of the greatest rivalries of all time, between two of the best to ever play.  

If you're a stats/numbers type of fan, then you would know that for the most part, the numbers are in the Broncos' favor. If you just focus on the month of October, however, you'll notice that the two QBs stats are nearly identical. The difference? Brady threw for 14 TDs, 0 interceptions, to Manning's 14 TDs and 2 interceptions. Both teams have won their last 4 games and are playing some wicked good football. Scary good.

Last season, the Patriots rallied back from a 24 point deficit to win 34-31 in overtime, after completely falling apart in the first half. This time around, most people are picking Peyton and the Broncos to leave Foxboro with another win under their belt. Some even go as far as to say that the Broncos will show no mercy and will completely dominate on Sunday afternoon. I, like most Patriots fans, don’t agree with those very bold predictions. The Patriots have too much at stake to allow that to happen. By no means will it be a blowout in either direction. I expect it will be a fairly close game and come down to the very end. Prepare for a nail biter, PatsNation. 

The Patriots will be facing two of their former best players. Wes Welker and Aqib Talib. Though Welker has not been a big part of Denver's offense this season, I expect him to have a bigger role tomorrow against his former team. Personally, I'm hoping Peyton throws to Welker and is picked off every time. Aqib Talib on the other hand, has made a lot of noise in Denver's secondary this season. He's had a pretty big impact in several games. But I hope that whoever he's covering tomorrow has a huge game and that Brady doesn't hesitate to throw in his direction. 

New England has their toughest challenge, yet, tomorrow afternoon. Denver has a scary good defensive line and of course Peyton and his multitude of weapons will come to play. It's important that the Patriots start and finish strong, and put on a dominating performance for a full 60 minutes. OLine needs to play their best game of the season. Hopefully the Patriots offensive game plan includes all of Brady's targets. I'm praying that Jules doesn't have the drops, Amendola is a nice surprise weapon, and that Gronk continues the monster game he had last week. I would love to see Tim Wright and Brian Tyms have great games, with one or two TD passes, each. The Pats need a nice balance of running and passing, so Jonas Gray, Shane Vereen, and James White need to play better than they ever have before.

As for defense, getting to Peyton is top-priority. Close behind that, is not allowing too much separation between our D-Backs and Denver's receivers. Can Revis pick off Manning at least once, pleaseee? Defensive line will have quite a task at hand, with Denver's running game. Ronnie Hillman will be active and playing tomorrow.

Again, I think that starting strong is key to this game. Put pressure on Manning early, show no mercy in coverage, play physical, and find rhythm on offense, keep it going, and go no huddle. No stupid, plays McDaniels! 

It's supposed to be in the low 40's, upper 30's tomorrow, which, I don't wanna jinx it, but uhh, compare the stats in cold weather. 

We played great football in October and I hope the Pats keep it going, and only get better. 

As always,

GO PATS!